First Lensman's Articles
Consider Dice Roll Percentages

This is an update of an article
I wrote for decktech.net

This article came about because of a discussion I've been having with SonOfVader regarding Lobster Johnson Experienced versus his Rookie. Son thinks that Lobby Exp is not worth the extra twelve points. Whereas, I think there is a huge difference between the two.

The Lobby Rookie only has an 8 Attack value whereas the Exp has a 10 Attack. The Experienced is way more useful because of this jump in attack value let alone the added toughness, B.P.R.D Team, etc.

Why do I think this? It's all in the roll of the dice versus some of the more heavy hitters in HeroClix. I'll demonstrate by giving you the roll percentage table for two dice:

ROLL Combin-
ations		 Percent Chance of
Hitting
2
1
 2.7778% NO GOOD
3
2
 5.5556% 97.2223%
4
3
 8.3333% 91.6667%
5
4
 11.1111% 83.3334%
6
5
 13.8886% 72.2223%
7
6
 16.6667% 58.3334%
8
5
 13.8889% 41.6667%
9
4
 11.1111% 27.7778%
10
3
 8.3333% 16.6667%
11
2
 5.5556% 8.3334%
12
1
 2.7778% 2.7778%

There are 36 combinations of dice rolls. The number 7 has the most possible combinations with 6. You want that on your side when making an attack!!!

Lobster Johnson Rookie attacking someone with a 16 defense has to roll an 8 or better to make the hit. Based on the table above, you have a 41.6667% chance to do so. However, the Lobby Experienced, with his 10 attack, needs only a 6 or better increasing his chances to 72.2223% -- without any added perplex !

Putting the 7 on your side of the attack roll jumps your chances from 41.6667% to 58.3334% -- and increase of 16.6667%. If you were having an operation, you would feel more comfortable knowing that you had around a 60 percent chance of success versus a 40% chance?

If you have 1 or 2 Probability Control characters on your team, here is how it'll affect your chances of making a successful attack:

Target Roll
(or better)		 % W/O
PC		 % W/
1 PCer		 % W/
2 PCers
3
 97.22% 99.92% 99.99%
4
 91.67% 99.29% 99.94%
5
 83.33% 97.25% 99.54%
6
 72.22% 92.31% 97.84%
7
 58.33% 82.69% 92.76%
8
 41.67% 65.98% 80.07%
9
 27.78% 47.76% 62.37%
10
 16.67% 30.57% 42.07%
11
 8.33% 15.98% 22.97%
12
 2.78% 5.48% 8.08%

As you can see, you get a significant bump when 7 is on your side. With one PCer on your team, the chances of hitting 8 or better is 66% which is good; BUT, having to roll 7 or better increases your chances to almost 83%. That is a huge advantage. With TWO (2) PCers on your team you are almost invincible with 7 or better with just shy of 93% chance. In each case there is a big jump going from 8 or better to 7 or better.

So, next time you are trying to compare characters and their levels, take into account what defense values you'll be facing and how you can get, at a minimum, the 7 roll in your favor. You'll find yourself getting better results in matches.

On the flip side, think of this when it comes to Defense. You don't want to give your opponent that 7 roll.

Have Fun !!!
Reformatted this page for my Blackberry®